The forecast functionality is used to detect weak signals before alerts are generated, and in this way, help operations teams anticipate issues before they occur.

• Forecasts are applicable to configuration items (CI), i.e. hosts and services.
• They are performed using the metrics and statuses returned by a specific list of commands run by service templates on the Box.
• They meet different needs based on the forecast horizon: short-term forecast horizon (15-hour night-time) and medium-term to long-term forecast horizon (capacity).
• They are constantly reevaluated based on the latest data collected.
   

Forecasts: Objectives

• Enable the operations team to anticipate failure.
• Optimize SLAs by reducing unavailability.
• Process potential night-time alerts during the day when more employees are available to work on them.
• Minimize the costs and disorder that may arise from work during off-business hours.

Notes

• The commands compatible with forecasts are maintained by EasyVista. You cannot add new ones or modify existing ones.

Short-term forecast horizon: 15-hour night-time

The 15-hour forecast horizon enables you to avoid resorting to on-call staff during off-hours for incidents that could have been anticipated. This forecast horizon is applicable to operations integrated with a Dataviz.

Forecasts are available in the Graph widget (forecast mode), in the Status List widget and in the Details form of the configuration item (CI).

Calculation rules

• The system will apply a single rule to all CI metrics with thresholds. This rule will trigger an alert when either the maximum or minimum threshold limit is reached.
  • You define a status for each metric with thresholds. Thresholds are extracted from the most recent performance data returned by monitoring.
  • The final status of the CI is determined using the most critical metric status.

• To calculate the projected status or value, there must be at least 30 points of historical data, i.e. 30 values for the metric in question.

• The frequency for recalculating the forecast depends on the control interval.
  • Interval of 1 minute => Forecast recalculated every 5 minutes.
  • Interval of 5 minutes => Forecast recalculated every 15 minutes.
  • Interval of 10 minutes => Forecast recalculated every 30 minutes.
  • Interval of 15 minutes => Forecast recalculated every 30 minutes.
  • Intervals greater => Forecast recalculated each time a control is run.

Forecast in the Graph widget

The forecast is displayed as a dotted line in the chart.

Forecast in the Status List widget

• The report displays the projected status (15-hour), the status change deadline and the confidence level.
     

• You can click the projected status to create a ticket.
     

Forecast in the Details form of the CI

The Details form displays the projected status (15-hour), the status change deadline and the confidence level. The forecast is displayed in the Metric tab.

Medium-term to long-term forecast horizon

Calculation rules

The forecast is calculated using Average peak hour data.

Display

The capacity report contains a table that displays the current capacity rate, the capacity overrun deadline in months and days and the corresponding date.

• Components whose current capacity rate is already 100% and components whose capacity rate will not reach 100% within the forecast horizon defined will not be displayed.
• Components are sorted in ascending order based on their capacity overrun deadline. Components whose capacity overrun date is earliest will appear at the top of the table.
   

Procedures

How to enable the forecast functionality for a company

Step 1: Select the company where you want to enable the forecast functionality

SelectCompanyInCompanyTree_Procedure

Step 2: Enable the forecast functionality

1. Select Configuration > General > AIOps in the menu.

2. Enable the forecast functionality.

The forecast functionality will be enabled for all commands whose compatibility has been validated.  See the List of commands

How to configure a short-term forecast horizon

In the Graph widget

1. Go to the relevant Dataviz and switch to edit mode.

2. Add a Graph widget.

3. Add a metric.

4. Enable the forecast functionality.

In the Status List widget

1. Select Configuration > Reporting in the menu.

2. Create or modify a Widget report using the Status List template.

3. Go to the relevant Dataviz and add a Status List widget.

4. Select the 15 hours forecast value from the drop-down list.

How to configure a medium-term or long-term forecast horizon

1. Select Configuration > Reporting in the menu.

2. Create or modify a capacity report.

3. Select the Parameters tab.

4. Complete the Capacity overrun section.

• Overrun horizon: Horizon used for forecasting capacity overrun, expressed in days or months.

• Show trend: Used to indicate whether or not the trend should be displayed in charts in the report.

Commands supported by the forecast functionality

Click to see the list of commands